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全球价值链与贸易战

时间: 2018-12-10 12:02 来源: 作者: 浏览量:657 字号: 打印

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Trade Wars along the Global Value Chains?

Jiandong Ju (1), Hong Ma (1), Zi Wang (2), and Xiaodong Zhu (3)

(1)Tsinghua University
(2) Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
(3) University of Toronto August 20, 2018

全球价值链与贸易战

鞠建东(1),马弘(1),王子(2),朱晓冬(3)
(1)清华大学
(2)上海财经大学
(3)多伦多大学
2018年8月20日


Abstract

We propose a multi-sector, multi-factor Krugman model with production linkages to quantify the consequences of the recent US-China trade conflicts. The model emphasizes the importance of high-tech or strategic sectors that (i) are skilled-intensive, (ii) utilize skilled-intensive inputs, (iii) have low elasticities of substitution across varieties within sector, and (iv) are not or little substitutable in producing other products. Semiconductor industry, one example of these strategic sectors, has? drawn substantial attention in the recent trade conflicts. Our quantification suggests that these strategic industries could suffer disproportionately from trade conflicts. Considering the role of strategic industries in the global value chains, we find that the proposed US-China tariff war would decrease the U.S. real income by 0.43 percent and the China’s real income by 0.36 percent.

摘要

本文提出运用多产业、多因素、具有生产关联性的克鲁格曼模型量化近期中美贸易冲突的影响。该模型强调了高科技行业/战略性行业的重要性,这些行业具备以下特点:(1)技术密集型,(2)利用技术密集型输入,(3)行业内可替代性较低,(4)在生产其他产品时不可替代或难以替代。作为重要战略性行业之一的半导体行业,在近期的贸易冲突中引起了广泛关注。我们的量化结果表明,这些战略性行业很可能会在贸易摩擦中受到不成比例的影响。考虑到战略性行业在全球价值链中的作用,我们发现中美关税之战将使美国实际收入减少0.43%,中国实际收入减少0.36%。


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