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贸易关联与企业价值:关于2018年中美“贸易战”的研究

时间: 2018-12-10 12:02 来源: 作者: 浏览量:594 字号: 打印

Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”

This version: August 7, 2018

Yi Huang, Chen Lin, Sibo Liu, Heiwai Tang?

贸易关联与企业价值:关于2018年中美“贸易战”的研究

本版:2018年8月7日

黄毅,林晨,刘思博,邓希炜?


Abstract

On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports, leading to a significant concern over the “Trade War” between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China have lower stock and bond returns but higher default risks in the short time window around the announcement date. We also find that firms’ indirect exposure to US-China trade through domestic input-output linkages affects their responses to the announcement. These findings suggest that the structure of US-China trade is much more complex than the simplistic view of global trade that engendered Trump’s “Trade War” against China.


摘要

?????? 2018年3月22日,特朗普计划对500亿美元中国进口商品征收关税,引发公众对中美“贸易战”的高度关注。根据企业与中美贸易的直接联系或间接联系,我们就“贸易战”对中美两国企业的影响进行了评估。在“公告”发布前后的短期内,更依赖中国进出口业务的美国企业出现了股票和债券收益率下跌的情况,同时违约风险走高。我们还对一些通过国内投入产出与中美贸易有间接联系的企业进行研究,观察它们对“贸易战”的反应,发现中美贸易结构实际上很复杂,认为是全球贸易导致特朗普对中国发动“贸易战”的看法过于简单。


JEL Classification: F10, G12, G14, O24
JEL分类:F10,G12,G14,O24
Keywords: Stock returns, event study, trade policy, offshoring, input-output linkages, global value chains
关键词:股票收益,事件分析,贸易政策,离岸,投入产出关联,全球价值链


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? Huang: Graduate Institute of Geneva. Email: yi.huang@graduateinstitute.ch. Lin: University of Hong Kong. Email: chenlin1@hku.hk. Liu: University of Hong Kong. Email: sibo@connect.hku.hk. Tang: Johns Hopkins University. Email: hwtang@jhu.edu.
? Huang: Graduate Institute of Geneva. Email: yi.huang@graduateinstitute.ch. Lin: University of Hong Kong. Email: chenlin1@hku.hk. Liu: University of Hong Kong. Email: sibo@connect.hku.hk. Tang: Johns Hopkins University. Email: hwtang@jhu.edu.
? 黄:日内瓦高级国际关系及发展学院,电子邮件:yi.huang@graduateinstitute.ch;林:香港大学,电子邮件:chenlin1@hku.hk;刘:香港大学,电子邮件:sibo@connect.hku.hk,邓:约翰斯?霍普金斯大学,电子邮件:hwtang@jhu.edu.